You want winners? (I think Im entitled...)
YOU..WANT...WINNERS? (I WANT THE TRUTH!)
YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH! Son, we live in a world that has games, and those games have to be picked against the spread. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lee Corso? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Pitt and you curse the Mirage. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that my picks, while sometimes wrong, make money! And my picks, though grotesque, and incomprehensible to you, make money! You don't wanna know because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want my picks online.....you NEED my picks online. We use words like chalk....upset....lock. We use these words as the backbone of a lifetime spent earning something....you use them as a punchline! I have neither the time, nor the inclination, to explain myself to gambler who succeeds under the blanket of the very picks that I provide...and then questions the manner in which I provide them! I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a sports section, and circle a winner. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to!
(Did you pick Wake over Florida State?)
I made the pick I thought I.....
(DID YOU PICK WAKE?)
You're goddamn right I did!
Whooooooooooooooooa Nellie! That's right, "the picks" are back. New environment, new title, more flare, pomp and circumstance. What was once the A,B,C's of gambling is now a well thought out and thoroughly analyzed weekly handicapping column dedicated to my favorite movie. As a primer, many of you are familiar with http://www.wormpix.blogspot.com/, where my picks used to reside. I then began a webcast of picks. For the year, I had a legitimate success rate of somewhere between 55-62%, with my top picks coming in at over 65%. This year has been rough so far. Overall record of 31-32, with no dilineation between top picks. But fear not! The karma has returned, and the effort and analysis has been ramped back up to the usual level of scrutiny. So, without further ado, I bring you the picks....
SMOKE-FILLED, COFFEE HOUSE CRAP (A picks)
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"Lt. Weinberg: They beat up on a weakling, and that's all they did. The rest is just smokefilled coffee-house crap. They tortured and tormented a weaker kid. They didn't like him. So, they killed him. And why? Because he couldn't run very fast. "
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For the mismatches that should come in well over the point spread. The underdogs should get beat by at least a touchdown more than these very soft lines...and why? Because they cant run very fast!
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Virginia Tech (-14) @ Duke: Duke has been fiesty, but I dont see any reason they will score on a VT defense that has ramped up its efforts of late. If Brandon Ore gets untracked, this should get ugly..
Predicted Score: VT 28, Duke 7
Actual Score: VT 43, Duke 14 (W)
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Southern Miss (-9) v. SMU: USM employs a balanced attack on offense, and just enough mettle on defense to keep down the SMU passing game. Don't be fooled by the Mustangs' performance through the air. Those numbers are mostly the result of playing from behind. At SMU this might be a closer game, but in Miss., it should be over early..
Predicted Score: USM 38, SMU 14
Actual Score: USM 28, SMU 7 (W)
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Central Michigan (-13.5) v. Army: I know, rooting against Army makes me hate America. So be it. I love American dollars though. Dan LeFavour has turned it on lately, and his passing exploits have made CMU nearly unstoppable against lesser foes. After struggling at home with Tulane, Army should find Michigan quite uninviting. They may fight close for a half, but will wilt as the game progresses..
Predicted Score: CMU 42, Army 17
Actual Score: CMU 47, Army 23 (W)
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California (-14) v Oregon State: The Beavers have been quite disappointing to say the least, but this is more a nod to the Bears playing at full strength. There is a bit of worry here in that a #2 ranking may be sufficient to have Cal looking ahead and not taking OSU seriously. But it is clear that this season is about making a statement, and Cal is focused. With a week to prepare, the Bears will air it out against a below average OSU secondary and ramp up the DeSean Jackson Heisman hype..
Predicted Score: Cal 45, Oregon St. 21
Actual Score: OSU 31, Cal 28 (L)
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OBJECTION. OVERRULED! (B picks)
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Lt. Weinberg: "I strenuously object?" Is that how it works? Hm? "Objection." "Overruled." "Oh, no, no, no. No, I STRENUOUSLY object." "Oh. Well, if you strenuously object then I should take some time to reconsider."
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Games that seem so easy, you want to go the other way. But they seem easy for a reason.....they are.
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LSU (-10) @ Kentucky: Not many are falling for the allure of the underdog in this game, which makes it feel even more dangerous. But LSU is crushing people right now, and KY has been doing it with a little bit of smoke and mirrors, and alot of Andre Woodson. After a hard fought win over Florida, the Tigers should be fired up to make a statement..
Predicted Score: LSU 31, Kentucky 14
Actual Score: Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (L)
Actual Score: Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (L)
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Arizona St. (-12) v. Washington: I love everything ASU is doing, mostly the intensity on defense and their addition of a running game to what has been a traditionally pass heavy offense. Dennis Erickson knows what he is doing (hell, he got 4 wins out of Idaho!). Washington is up and coming, but they bring a string of lackluster performances and a freshman QB into what should be a raucus stadium. This number looked soft when it came out, and I am shocked it hasnt moved..
Predicted Score: ASU 35, Washington 21
Actual Score: ASU 44, Washington 20 (W)
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Michigan (-5.5) v Purdue: Everything about this game stinks. Pass happy Purdue against struggling Michigan, just one of those games that sneaks up on you when you arent looking. But these are the facts of the case: Mike Hart is running for well over 160 yards a game. Michigan's defense has been above average of late. Chad Henne is healthy. Those things, coupled with superior athletes and a home field advantage should lead to a solid cover by the Wolverines.These are the facts of the case.....and they are, indisiputed.
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Predicted Score: Michigan 28, Purdue 20
Actual Score: Michigan 48, Purdue 21 (W)
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Illinois (-4) @ Iowa: Trap game, I know it. I just know it. Everything says, not as good as it looks. But Iowa is not good. It's that simple. Ill gets great push up front, and Iowa simply cannot throw the ball consistently. Yes, it's on the road, but is there a team playing with more confidence than Illinois? The power rating on scoresandodds.com says this line should move 6 pts towards Iowa. I see no way in hell why.Predicted Score: Illinois 27, Iowa 10
Actual Score: Iowa 10, Illinois 6 (L)
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INTERNAL AFFAIRS (C picks).
"She's disposed of two cases in three years."
"Two cases in three years, who's she handling, the Rosenbergs?"
"She's a helluva litigator, and she can crawl up a lawyer's ass with the best of them.."
"Yeah yeah, I know, all passion no street smarts."
For Joanne Galloway, who has alot of heart, and she lets it cloud her judgment. These games show the betting public going one way as a whole, letting their passion for either a big favorite or a sexy underdog effect their judgment.
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Oklahoma (-10.5) v. Missouri: The Tigers are a great story. Playing out of their minds, lead by an underrated defense and a lights out quarterback. But this is Oklahoma. Sam Bradford has been efficient and on the mark, while the running game has been explosive and difficult for anyone to stop. Don't even think about the Col game. That's like judging USC on the Stanford game. It doesn't apply. Oklahoma is stronger, faster, and better......and at home. They win this game going away.Predicted Score: OK 35, Missouri 14
Actual Score: OK 41, Missouri 31 (L)
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Michigan St. (-3.5) v. Indiana: This game absolutely baffles me. Indiana is another nice story, and they have played very well. At home. This will be their first real road test, and despite the Spartans' problems at home last week, I dont see how Indiana can expect to exploit the same weaknesses NW did. Look for MSU to push the Hoosiers around with thunder and lightening running the ball (Ringer and Caulchuk), while the best pass rush in the conference has Kellen Lewis scrambling all day.Predicted Score: MSU 31, Indiana 21
Actual Score: MSU 52, Indiana 27 (W)
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San Jose St. (+17) v. Hawaii: Dare I say it, the Spartans are a sexy upset pick here. The line has moved tremendously, but I would risk any money line they gave me. Hawaii is suspect, and a good pass defense can rattle them. A hobbled Colt Brennan will look at a pass D that surrenders 186 yards a game, and will be fired up at home. No, there wont be a significant crowd, but this is a decent SJSU team led by a quality quarterback that should keep things interesting up to the very end.Predicted Score: Hawaii 35, San Jose St. 31
Actual Score: Hawaii 42, San Jose St 35 (W)
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Arizona (+21) @ USC: I know, I just said don't judge the Trojans on the Stanford game. I'm not. I am judging them on the fact that Mark Sanchez will start, and even in limited duty, he has yet to demonstrate he can be an effective replacement for Booty. What last week did show was that when the passing game struggles, the team struggles. Arizona has ramped up their offense of late (300 pass yds per game) and has a decent enough defense to keep this game close. Look for USC to be economical, and keep this a low scoring affair.Predicted Score: USC 28, Arizona 7
Actual Score: USC 20, Arizona 13 (W)
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Arkansas (-3) v Auburn: Auburn is getting a lot of love, likely because of the fact they are ranked and Arkansas is not. But this is an Arkansas team running for 330 yards a game with a balanced attack and a quality defense. At home, they should be able to keep the erratic Auburn offense under wraps..
Predicted Score: Ark 24, Aub 17
Actual Score: Auburn 9, Arkansas 7 (L)
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Fresno St. (-10) @ Idaho: I honestly have no idea why Idaho is getting all the action on this game, not after Fresno put up 48 in Nevada and showed that it's running game is operating on all cylindars. I like Fresno to ramp up the defense against a Vandal attack that will be missing its play caller. Maybe factor that in, huh betting public?.
Predicted Score: Fresno State 31, Idaho 17
Actual Score: FSU 37, Idaho 24 (W)
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Minnesota (+7) @ Northwestern: Plain and simple, Minn is better than they looked last week, and NW is worse than they looked. This is a team that lost at home to Duke, people! Up and down, lots of passing, lots of yards, the Gopher running game will be the difference in a game that should come down to a last second field goal..
Predicted Score: Minnesota 34, Northwestern 31
Actual Score: NW 49, Minn 48 (W)
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I'M NOT MARKINSON (D Picks)
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Lt. Markinson: "I want you to know, I'm proud neither of what I have done, nor of what I am doing."
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I am predicting these games, but Im not proud of it.
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Lt. Markinson: "I want you to know, I'm proud neither of what I have done, nor of what I am doing."
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I am predicting these games, but Im not proud of it.
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Ohio (-4) v. Eastern Michigan: Ohio is playing alot better, and call me crazy, but I think the Bobcats win this game by three touchdowns.Ohio 48, EMU 42 (W)
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UAB (-3) v. Tulane: UAB just feels right.
UAB 26, Tulane 21 (W)
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Bowling Green (+1) @ Miami (OH): Absolutely ridiculous pick, but the line is close for a reason. BG can throw the ball, and if they get hot, this wont be that close.Miami 47, BG 14 (L)
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