Monday, November 03, 2008
Friday, October 19, 2007
A Few Good Picks II
A Picks:
Miami-OH (-6) @ Temple
Air Force (-2.5) v. Wyoming
New Mexico St (-9) v. Idaho
B Picks:
Middle Tenn St (-2.5) v. Ark St
Syracuse (-3.5) v. Buffalo
Tennessee (-1) @ Alabama
Nevada (-7) @ Utah St
East Carolina (-6) v. North Carolina St.
C Picks:
UNLV (-2.5) v. Col St
Cincy (-9.5) @ Pitt
Fla St (-4.5) v. Mia Fla
Wisconsin (-23) v. Northern Ill
D Picks:
Texas Tech (+3.5) @ Missouri
USC (-17.5) @ Notre Dame
Mich St (+18.5) @ Ohio St
Tulsa (+3) @ Central Florida
Big bets were made on Air Force and New Mexico State. Excel and enjoy, my cherubs....
Friday, October 12, 2007
A Few Good Picks, Vol. I
You want winners? (I think Im entitled...)
YOU..WANT...WINNERS? (I WANT THE TRUTH!)
YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH! Son, we live in a world that has games, and those games have to be picked against the spread. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lee Corso? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Pitt and you curse the Mirage. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know: that my picks, while sometimes wrong, make money! And my picks, though grotesque, and incomprehensible to you, make money! You don't wanna know because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want my picks online.....you NEED my picks online. We use words like chalk....upset....lock. We use these words as the backbone of a lifetime spent earning something....you use them as a punchline! I have neither the time, nor the inclination, to explain myself to gambler who succeeds under the blanket of the very picks that I provide...and then questions the manner in which I provide them! I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a sports section, and circle a winner. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to!
(Did you pick Wake over Florida State?)
I made the pick I thought I.....
(DID YOU PICK WAKE?)
You're goddamn right I did!
Whooooooooooooooooa Nellie! That's right, "the picks" are back. New environment, new title, more flare, pomp and circumstance. What was once the A,B,C's of gambling is now a well thought out and thoroughly analyzed weekly handicapping column dedicated to my favorite movie. As a primer, many of you are familiar with http://www.wormpix.blogspot.com/, where my picks used to reside. I then began a webcast of picks. For the year, I had a legitimate success rate of somewhere between 55-62%, with my top picks coming in at over 65%. This year has been rough so far. Overall record of 31-32, with no dilineation between top picks. But fear not! The karma has returned, and the effort and analysis has been ramped back up to the usual level of scrutiny. So, without further ado, I bring you the picks....
SMOKE-FILLED, COFFEE HOUSE CRAP (A picks)
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"Lt. Weinberg: They beat up on a weakling, and that's all they did. The rest is just smokefilled coffee-house crap. They tortured and tormented a weaker kid. They didn't like him. So, they killed him. And why? Because he couldn't run very fast. "
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For the mismatches that should come in well over the point spread. The underdogs should get beat by at least a touchdown more than these very soft lines...and why? Because they cant run very fast!
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Predicted Score: VT 28, Duke 7
Actual Score: VT 43, Duke 14 (W)
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Predicted Score: USM 38, SMU 14
Actual Score: USM 28, SMU 7 (W)
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Predicted Score: CMU 42, Army 17
Actual Score: CMU 47, Army 23 (W)
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Predicted Score: Cal 45, Oregon St. 21
Actual Score: OSU 31, Cal 28 (L)
OBJECTION. OVERRULED! (B picks)
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Lt. Weinberg: "I strenuously object?" Is that how it works? Hm? "Objection." "Overruled." "Oh, no, no, no. No, I STRENUOUSLY object." "Oh. Well, if you strenuously object then I should take some time to reconsider."
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Games that seem so easy, you want to go the other way. But they seem easy for a reason.....they are.
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Actual Score: Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (L)
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Predicted Score: ASU 35, Washington 21
Actual Score: ASU 44, Washington 20 (W)
These are the facts of the case.....and they are, indisiputed.
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Predicted Score: Michigan 28, Purdue 20
Actual Score: Michigan 48, Purdue 21 (W)
Predicted Score: Illinois 27, Iowa 10
Actual Score: Iowa 10, Illinois 6 (L)
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"She's disposed of two cases in three years."
"Two cases in three years, who's she handling, the Rosenbergs?"
"She's a helluva litigator, and she can crawl up a lawyer's ass with the best of them.."
"Yeah yeah, I know, all passion no street smarts."
For Joanne Galloway, who has alot of heart, and she lets it cloud her judgment. These games show the betting public going one way as a whole, letting their passion for either a big favorite or a sexy underdog effect their judgment.
Predicted Score: OK 35, Missouri 14
Actual Score: OK 41, Missouri 31 (L)
Predicted Score: MSU 31, Indiana 21
Actual Score: MSU 52, Indiana 27 (W)
Predicted Score: Hawaii 35, San Jose St. 31
Actual Score: Hawaii 42, San Jose St 35 (W)
Predicted Score: USC 28, Arizona 7
Actual Score: USC 20, Arizona 13 (W)
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Predicted Score: Ark 24, Aub 17
Actual Score: Auburn 9, Arkansas 7 (L)
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Predicted Score: Fresno State 31, Idaho 17
Actual Score: FSU 37, Idaho 24 (W)
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Predicted Score: Minnesota 34, Northwestern 31
Actual Score: NW 49, Minn 48 (W)
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Lt. Markinson: "I want you to know, I'm proud neither of what I have done, nor of what I am doing."
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I am predicting these games, but Im not proud of it.
Ohio 48, EMU 42 (W)
Miami 47, BG 14 (L)
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Reggie Miller is So "Now"
Miller, who turns 42 on Aug. 24, played his entire 18-year career with the Indiana Pacers before retiring in 2005. Since his playing days ended he has worked as a television analyst for TNT.
"I'm always flattered when my name is mentioned as someone who can still help an NBA team win a championship," Miller said Wednesday in a statement relayed to The Associated Press by the TNT network. "I've had limited [ed. note: zero] discussions with Celtics management [ed. note: drunken fans] about their roster and a potential [ed. note: nonexistent] role for me. At this time, I'm enjoying my role as an analyst with TNT."
What a jackass. Two main problems with quote:
1-- The use of the word "still" is improper given that he NEVER WON A SINGLE CHAMPIONSHIP, and thus he has never been "someone who could help an NBA team win a championship."
2-- He shouldn't be flattered to have his name mentioned because HE'S THE ONE MENTIONING HIS NAME. Man, I love when SMP gets some press on the Underhills' Bill.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Random Notes
While I agree that dogfighting is disgusting, and that Vick is a piece of shit, I think Sen. Byrd's response is pretty hilarious:
Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who has addressed lawmakers often about his love for animals, shook with emotion during a forceful condemnation of dogfighting."Hundreds of thousands -- if not millions -- of dollars are often at stake in the breeding, the training and the selling of fighting dogs. How inhuman, how dastardly!" shouted the senator.
Senator Byrd then added that he was "going to dispatch the white night forthwith" to investigate the issue.
NBA Is "Inhuman, Dastardly"
The FBI is investigating allegations that a veteran NBA referee bet on basketball games over the past two seasons, including ones in which he officiated. According to a law enforcement official, authorities are examining whether the referee made calls to affect the point spread in games on which he or associates had wagered.
Perhaps this explains my 17-bet losing streak in December-January . . . unlikely, however, given that my losses were all on football.
Personal foul, blocking, number 24. Shooter, I'm going to need you to miss two of two here.
Jersey City, New Jersey Litterers Are Inhuman, Dastardly
A Jersey City woman made a shocking discovery on her lawn this morning when she noticed a military rocket launcher lying in the grass. Niranjana Besai was leaving her house, located at 88 Nelson Street, to go to work just after 8 this morning when she spotted the launcher on her front lawn. She immediately called police.
I don't understand why this is such a news story. I've gotten drunk and dropped all kinds of shit out of my pockets . . . keys, cell phone . . . oh, wait, it was a missile launcher . . . in the Newark flight path . . . hmm, definitely wasn't me.
Bob. . . where did you put the other launcher? Fuck, Bob, not again!
ESPN Copy Editors Are Inhuman, Dastardly Shitty, No-Talent Hacks
Here's a sampling of recent headlines thought up by the ESPN "Braintrust":
Dog-loving demonstrators urge NFL to 'sack' Vick
See, that's funny. . . "sack," get it . . . "sack!" It means fired, and it's a football term for tackling the quarterback behind the line of scrimmage. Get it? That's gold! [as editor throws own feces in excitement]
Cheery Garcia [referring to Sergio Garcia leading the Open]
Oh, that's hilarious. It's like "Jerry Garcia," or even funnier, the Ben & Jerry's ice cream flavor! Run with it!! [ed. note: "cheery" doesn't rhyme with "Cherry" or "Jerry"]
Friday, June 29, 2007
2007 Draft Diary: PART II
12:14 - Wizards on the clock, and I demand that the NBA revoke all draft picks until they go back to being the Bullets. Washington changed their name because DC had too many murders, and they didnt want to promote violence.
I won't lie, I fully expected to mock the Wizards, but in 1995, when they changed their name, the murder count in DC was 360. In 2005, it was 195. I can't argue with that kind of production. Kudos Wizards, such a brilliant move!
Wizards take Nick Young, off guard from USC. Interesting story. Documentary about him, chronicalling his problems as a kid. You feel for the kid, but it's still no excuse to wear a cream jacket, cream shirt, cream tie and BLACK SLACKS. Unless he has an endorsement deal with Oreo, he needs to rethink that outfit.
12:20 - Kincks to get Zach Randolph for Channing Frye and Steve Francis. The Knicks fans are going crazy, including Spike who nods in approval. What a steal. Unless Francis rediscovers his game in Portland, the Blazers just got nothing. And when you have Oden and Lamarcus Aldridge, where exactly will Channing Frye fit in? Then again, Zach Randolph couldnt stay out of trouble in Portland......he should be fine in New York City, right?
Stephen A. is yelling at me again.
12:22 - Nets are up and just saved me from sure suicide by taking Sean Williams, keeping the Warriors from taking him. A guy who cared more about smoking weed than playing for Boston College. Just couldn't stop smoking. Well, he couldnt stop getting caught. Guy blocks shots, rebounds, and cant shoot. This guy couldnt hit the ground with a handful of rice.
12:24 - Nervous. Very nervous. The Warriors are on the clock without a single quality player available. Scouts like Jason Smith. Great. They liked Patrick OBryant last year too, and Im not sure he sniffed a single minute last year. I want Morris Almond. This guy is a stud. 26 a game, 45% from 3s, hits the mid range jumper, hits free throws, gets to the line 9 times a game. I understand, he did it in Conference USA, but so what? Stuckey goes lotto for scoring 25 a game in the Big Sky, so what is the problem here? Because Almond is a senior? Just goes to show what a bunch of morons NBA GMs are. Warriors loves scoring, love the three, and he would be perfect in that rotation, and would allow them to trade Monte Ellis in a package to get Yi Jianlian, who they covet.
12:28 - Wow, there it is. We knock off the Mavericks, and yet still, no respect. The Warriors pick expired during commercial break! F you ESPN, F you two times. Im tired of your bias. Here is Frodo.......Marco Belinelli. Italian shooting guard. At least they took a shooter, a guy that can come in and be a player right away. Lets go to the tape!
YES! I love this pick. Great stroke, athletic, long.....Ill assume tremendous upside, even though Bilastrator wont tell me so. This guy will produce immediately. Well done Mullin, well done!
12:32 - Jim Gray reporting about the Lakers, looking like Boggs from Shawshank.
12:35 - Lakers. Who cares. Other than everyone at ESPN of course. Javaris Crittenden. Good pick. Its been almost an entire season since they took a point guard. Crittenden can play though, and is actually an upgrade over Farmar. 6'5, quick, strong. He will be a nice addition, but he needs the ball in his hands. This is the triangle offense, and you need a PG who can shoot, not a penatrator. Kobe is the primary ball handler in this offense, which makes a guy like Crittenden a liability. They need to look to package him in a deal, or move Farmar. They really could have done better with a big at this spot. Jason Smith would have been a perfect fit. But wait, its Mitch Kupchak....ok, Im no longer surprised. That guy would draft a bowl of chili over a sno cone at a Palm Springs snack stand.
12:36 - More John McClane is a good thing, people. Yippie-ki-yay.
12:38 - Miami takes Jason Smith, and a deafening silence falls over the crowd. This is New York so they are either stunned, drunk, or both. Smith is about 7 feet tall, athletic, can hit the face up jumper. Bilas questions why Smith couldnt lead his team to more wins despite his talent. Um, because he was at Colorado State? Me, Bilas and three immigrants from the Home Depot parking lot could beat Colorado State.
12:40 - Mitch Kupchak appears to have kept his endorsement deal with Sominex. This guy gargles peanut butter. Id wear out the volume button on my remote if Stephen A and him ever had a conversation. Kupchak looks like Malcovich in In the Line of Fire, except that instead of killing the President, he is trying to kill the league's premier franchise.
I want to believe Jim Gray is wearing a rug, but in the end, if he was......is that the one he would choose? I honestly believe Hair in a Can would be an improvement for him.
12:44 - Mark Jackson just said EXACTLY what I said, pointing out that Phil Jackson won with Ron Harper at point. Fire Stephen A and give me that job! Bilas says Crittenden is a bad decision maker and turns the ball over too much....and he will be a good one. Bilas is a moron and doesn't know what he is talking about....he is a great announcer.
12:46 - Daequan Cook to the Sixers, who will trade him to the Heat for Jason Smith. Sweet pick. Because a guy who got 12 minutes in the final four is a much safer pick than a guy who scored 26.4 a game last year. Honestly, why take the next Hersey Hawkins or Allen Houston when you can get the next Dennis Hopson!
12:49 - Charlotte is back on the board. Awesome, are there any TarHeels left? Jordan is in the 19th hole playing poker and drinking scotch. They can't call him, he's likely to draft Adam Morrison again (yikes!). On that note, its a good time for me to gloat that I said Morrison and Reddick would be awful, and they were both horrid. Reread my diary from last year, and just try and ignore me calling James White a sleeper. (oops!)
12:51 - 'Cats take Jared Dudley, a 6'7 SF from BC. I really respect this pick. Not sexy, a senior who isnt super athletic. No upside potential, no length, no hooprockability or whatever is next in Bilas' crap fest of an analysis. All this guy does is make smart plays, play good defense, shoot the ball well, and work hard on the glass. Yeah, those qualities suck. Knicks are on the board, and if they dont take Derrick Byars or Almond, Ill be very disappointed. They could be a playoff team with Almond, Im saying that right now.
12:54 - Everyone and their brother says Wilson Chandler with this pick. What a mistake that would be. I know, I crushed the Balkman pick last year, and he ended up being a solid rotation guy....but on a terrible team! Does that count? Tony Campbell scored 23 a game on the T Wolves in their first couple of years, does that make him an all star? Being a valuable bench player on a horrible team is hardly my idea of a successful pick. The pieces are there to improve, but Zeke needs to get a shooter here.
12:55 - There it is. Worst kept secret this year. Wilson Chandler to the Knicks. 6'8 combo forward who was second team All BigEast. Athletic, decent player. Nice stroke inside of 15 feet. I see NOTHING that makes me think he will do anything of substance at the next level. Nothing compared to my boy Almond at least. 14.8 a game for DePaul. Sounds like a millionaire to me!
Bilas' new word this year is "second jumpability." I can't stress enough what an absolute head Bilas is. Stephen A loves the Wilson Chandler pick. Of course he does. He's an idiot.
12:57 - I am now fast forwarding through Stumanji's interviews. The fast forward button has tremendous upside.
1:00 - Phoenix takes Rudy Fernandez, a fellow Spaniard. Of course I love this pick, but it looks like he might go to Portland for cash. He has been a top Euro prospect since he was 16, so you know he can play. Has a nice stroke with a quick release. He's 6'5 and can get to the rim. This is a good pick for next year or two years from now, and if you can pair him with Sergio Rodriguez, that's a tremendous backcourt.
Best thing about this pick? Last year, Portland bought the rights to Sergio Rodriguez from Phoenix for 3 mill. Now they are supposedly buying the rights to Fernandez from Phoenix for another 3 mill. Its really great that we have a mechanism to determine the relative value of a human being. Is it possible Portland doesn't celebrate Juneteenth?
1:06 - Utah Jazz select Morris Almond. Let me recap this selection:
In the United States, larceny is a common law crime involving stealing. Under the common law, larceny is the trespassory asportation and taking of the (tangible) personal property of another with the intent to deprive him or her of it permanently. In English law, the common law offense was codified into the Larceny Act 1916. In turn, the terminology and substance was converted into theft by the Theft Act 1968
Im a little disappointed only because he was my favorite guy in this draft, and he went to my LEAST favorite team. He should have a great time in Salt Lake City. Its a party non stop there. Or, at least until the sun goes down. Im also disappointed because he won't really play alot. They have plenty of guys at the two spot, but here is hoping they give him a fair shot to earn minutes. He is my sleeper ROY if he gets minutes.
1:09 - Rockets select Aaron Brooks from Oregon, shoot first PG. In other words: PASS
1:11 - Mark Jackson won't stop agreeing with me. I am officially a fan. Mark, you an me....we are like, here...right here....eye to eye my man, eye to eye.
Josh McRoberts is still on the board and I am absolutely GIDDY. Only way I could enjoy someone falling more than this is if you pushed Ann Coulter out of a window.
1:13 - They are discussing new GM in Seattle, Sam Presti. Supposedly he is 30 years old, yet he looks a solid 10 years older than me. That takes away some of the sting as I recount my life.....not much, but some....
...augh, why didnt I study harder???? Damn you beer! Damn you!
1:14 - Pistons take Aaron Afflalo. Good for him. Not deserving of first round status, but nice to see him get rewarded for going back to school for at least another year. Should fit in nice with the Pistons. A physical defender with a decent stroke (inconsistent), he will fit in well with that team.
1:19 - Spurs take Tiago Splitter. Smart move, only because they have had so much success over seas. This guy, though, has pulled out of three drafts, and went from a likely lotto pick to 27th overall. Not the soundest business sense, but certainly not the worst decision of all time. Splitter is a good defender and rebounder who cant score with either hand.
1:21 - This draft has reached doldrums status. My bed is looking long with second jumpability.
1:22 - Phoenix, who hates paying rookies, likely to go international here. Nope, Alando Tucker. Hore. I. Bull. I detest this pick. A combo forward in college with a SG's body. Phoenix may be the only team he can produce on, simply because of their style. Tucker can't shoot or get his own shot. Gutty college player who excelled with his strength and 4 years of experience. At the pro level, he'll be lucky to crack the 9 man rotation. I wouldnt count on it. God help me, McRoberts might have been a better pick here.
(I will now beat myself about the head, breast and chest area with sock full of nickels. No, i deserve worse. Im going to sit and listen to this cut away to Vitale....
...ugh...
....no, no, no, no, no.....
...AUGH! SHUT UP! SHUT UP!.......)
1:27 - Sixers on the board. Petteri Koponen. Nice little pick. A Finnish point guard. I gotta tell you, when I think hoops......I think Finland. He'll go great with the off guard from Greenland they are taking in the second round. Highlights look good. I think he could definitely be a backup for Gonzaga. Or a first round pick.....whichever. I always wondered what Opie Taylor would look like running an NBA team. Congrats to Koponen for breaking the colorless barrier. He's the first albino in NBA history.
And so it ends. Fittingly, we reach el fin with a Fin. Rumors of a J Rich to Charlotte trade that will bring us Brandon Wright. I killed Wright earlier, but in the run and gun Warrior offense, he would really be excellent. He wouldnt have to be a banger underneath. Alongside Biedrins he could really excel in transition. Soft touch, athletic with good hands.....he could be VERY good. Which just means it will never happen.
Excel and enjoy my cherubs.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
2007 NBA Draft Diary: PART I
10:33 - Fire up the TiVo, its the dawn of a new era where the draft diary may exist at any time! Just pretent Im watching it live from Kuala Lampur and it will seem just fine. And don't kid yourself, the NBA is huge in Kuala Lampur. I hear the hate Kobe just as much over there.
10:35 - The commish is in the house! We come live from New York, and Frodo Stern insists on introducing the Big Apple as the "home of the Knicks and the Liberty." Clearly, nothing is more depressing then the mere thought of the WNBA. A collection of off-season deli workers and tanning salon attendants missing layups for minimum wage. I am, however, looking forward to when Isiah Thomas trades the Knicks first round pick for Rebecca Lobo and a case of mortadella.
10:36 - Stern looks like a hobbit, and his opening speech is just as ridiculous as his magenta tie. Frodo just declared that today's draft picks have turned a lifetime of "hard work" and "dedication" into the opportunity to "excel" in the NBA. Has he even seen Julian Wright play? He promises 2008 will be one of the best NBA seasons ever. Tough to compete with the sheer delight we all felt watching the Eastern Conference take a collective dump all season.
10:39 - First sight of Greg Oden. I won't give you the typical "Greg Oden is old" joke, but I should mention that his grandfather is wearing a hand-me-down suit from Greg.
10:41 - Our announcing lineup is this: Jay Bilas: The Bilastrator - excels at length, upside, and crapping directly from his own mouth. Mark Jackson - A pleasant delight this year, I may even forgive him for shooting like one of the guys from Double Dribble. Stephen A. Smith - Hatred. Its all I feel. The sooner he leaves my life, the better.
10:42 - Portland has the first pick. Im gonna go out on a limb.....Oden?
10:43 - Im a genius. How am I not working for ESPN??? Mel Kiper has nothing on me. I am the draft expert. I was all over this pick. And to think, I came up with it with absolutely not information, not leadups, no analysis from a single web site. Actually wearing a nice suit. It's long, with upside. Portland will love Oden for the next three years, at which point he will reach the retirement age. I love Oden. He is going to be a star. He has freakish athleticism, and will do nothing but develop. He'll be a cross between Alonzo and Ewing. And he hasn't be carded since he was six.
10:45 - Ah, its Stu Scott....STUMANJI! Stu is the complete package. He's a five-tool tool. Annoying, incomprehensible, unfunny, corny and unfunny. He just asked Oden who looks older, him or LeBron.
10:53 - After a quick pause, the Sonics select Kevin Durant. I love Durant, I really do. But explain to me the difference between Durant and Glenn Robinson? Honestly. Scoring forward, dominated in college, great range, decent rebounder, can't play defense.....check, check, check, check, check. Only difference is that Robinson scored more points in a better league. 30 a game in the Big Ten is like 40 in the run and gun Big 12 as far as I'm concerned. That being said, Durant should be a star. Interview with Stumanji now.....he looks skinnier than Nicole Ritchie during Ramadan.